From 10000 kms away

Greetings from the west coast of Canada where I'm on an extended holiday and research visit. We've been enjoying an early winter of Arctic outflows, which always come as a bit of a shock to the populace. Dig out your boots and grab the snow shovel, too. The arrival of snow means there's hope I'll be on my cross country skis soon!

Even though I'm not in the thick of things right now (i.e. not physically in the Middle East), it seems that one is never far from a story about Israel. This week's story (see NYTimes) is that Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and Israel have signed an agreement to build the Red-Dead Canal.

I think this is a terrible project. Terrible. Not because of its goals, but because of its means.

The goals of the Red-Dead project are three.

1) Alleviate Jordan's water shortage - make desalinated water 

The TOR for the project suggest tremendous optimism: they thought they could generate energy out of the scheme! No chance! The water will be piped up 1200 metres of elevation from the Dead Sea (sits at -400m) into Amman (sits at +800m). Between the desal and the 1200 metres that should use up any energy gained from piping the water down the gradient from the Red Sea to the desalination plant at the shore of the Dead Sea. 

Jordan has a major water shortage. Major. To their credit, the Jordanians have been working hard to improve their infrastructure. The leakage rates for Amman's water distribution system were something close to 50% and have been brought down into the 20% range. This is still too much leakage, but it is a huge improvement given the age of the infrastructure, the urban layout, and the topography of Amman (seven jebels (hills!) a nightmare of connections). But, really, the only part of the country that gets much rain is the northwest corner, up by the Sea of Galilee.

[ed. note: by the way - Canadian cities have major leakage in their water infrastructure too. Halifax is a leader in leakage reduction. Get this -- in 1999 (population  ~350,000)  the system needed 168 million litres of water per day, in 2011 (population ~ 390,000) it needed only 130 million. Yep, gobsmacking losses. Plug those holes!]

Jordan has a growing population both from internal factors (a replacement rate of 3.5; Canada is at 1.6) and external factors such as immigration and refugees. The point on refugees is not a small one: Jordan borders Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Jordan has accepted refugees of civil wars since it was established in 1946. The UNHCR (the UN High Commission for Refugees) estimated about 900,000 Syrian refugees would be in Jordan by the end of 2013.  This is huge stress on a country of 6.5 million people with a per capita GDP of less than $4,700. And, it puts further stress on water resources.

Upshot: No amount of conservation or efficiency is going to close the gap for Jordan. More supply is needed.

2) Top up the Dead Sea- save it from environmental degradation

If you've been reading this blog for a while, you'll remember the post from last October and the gif of the shrinking Dead Sea. Yikes! Next to nothing from the Jordan River flows into the Dead Sea. The days tick by and the Dead Sea shrinks, the shore caves into sinkholes. It's pretty straightforward and super sad.  Please, let's save the Dead Sea soon!

3) Build a symbol of peace and cooperation in the Middle East

I'm a bit mixed on this goal. Without a doubt working on relationships and sharing resources are important parts of peace and cooperation, but the "build a symbol" part makes me think an engineer wrote this.

The Plan

The "symbol of peace" is a massive piece of engineering (and some ancillary deals about water in the Sea of Galilee). A pipe goes into the bay at Aqaba in Jordan. It withdraws salt water (and the Red Sea is pretty salty, makes for great swimming) and pipes it on a downward slope to a desalination facility on the Dead Sea. Produced desalinated water is piped up to Amman and into the city's distribution network. The brine - the salty part of the Red Sea water - is sent into the Dead Sea. Major red flag right here: in the World Bank report they admit to not knowing what the brine is going to do to the Dead Sea. No idea. But, it'll be monitored so, with our typical resource management gusto, they think they can keep an eye on it and prevent damage to the unique ecosystem of the Dead Sea. Um...this is so far from a precautionary approach I'm rendered speechless. The Dead Sea is amazing and it is a major tourist attraction for both Israel and Jordan (and could be for the proto state of Palestine, too). Yikes.

The price tag on this project, when I went to the open house in Jerusalem last February, was USD 10 billion. People I chatted to then thought that the current economic climate would prevent the deal from being signed and the project going forward. The deal is signed. Whether the project gets built remains to be seen. 

If you've read this far, you're probably waiting for me to make my point. What's wrong with this project? Well, in short, I think it's early 20th century problem-solving for a 21st century problem. And, I'm not the only one. The authors of an alternative study suggested that a more incremental approach would include desalination and water transfers at the north end of the system. Israel could install additional desal capacity on the Mediterranean and pipe that water across to Amman, where the distances and elevations are less. Reclaimed wastewater or water from from the Sea of Galilee could then be sent into the Dead Sea, thus recharging it with something other than desal brine.  Such an approach has the advantage of addressing Amman's needs as required rather than building out more capacity than may be needed and leaving space for new innovations to change water demands. The authors of the alternative report also suggest water transfers from Turkey may be feasible at a future date. I have no idea about the technical aspects of any of these suggestions, but I appreciate that they offer a multifaceted approach to solving the two main challenges -- watering Amman and the Dead Sea -- in ways that seem more favourable, less expensive, more adaptable, and way less scary for the Dead Sea.

The signed deal probably gives Jordan geopolitical comfort - the entire project will be constructed in its sovereign territory. It doesn't have to negotiate anything else with the two other parties. So, in a way, the Red-Dead Canal Project may actually do less to build cooperation. Massive infrastructure may not be the best symbol of peace.